Retail eCommerce
How Tchibo Turned a 40% Budget Imbalance Insight into +9% ROAS Efficiency with Sellforte & MMM
Improvement in ROAS Efficiency
Budget Share Reallocated After Efficiency Insight
Sales drop during unfavorable weather identified
Tchibo: Brewing Growth Across a Complex Retail Ecosystem
For 75+ years, Tchibo has been delighting customers with high-quality products ranging from its iconic coffee to a constantly refreshed assortment of non-food goods — including one of its most beloved segments, Kids Clothing. With ~900 own stores, ~16,000 depots in grocery & specialist retail, and a strong ecommerce platform, Tchibo operates one of EMEA’s most complex multi-channel retail ecosystems.
As marketing channels and customer journeys became increasingly diverse across Own, Retail Partners, and Online sales, the team needed transparent, always-on measurement that could keep pace with this growing complexity. They also wanted the confidence to adapt their media mix proactively through the year, rather than relying on infrequent, annual evaluations.
To achieve this, Tchibo turned to Sellforte’s Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) and Media Optimizer.
Validating a New Strategic Direction
Tchibo’s goals were clear. They wanted a trusted and explainable solution that marketing and data science teams could use to guide weekly planning and decision making.
With Sellforte in place, Tchibo gained:
- Cross-channel transparency showing how media drives sales across Own, Retail Partners, and Online Sales Channels
- Category halo visibility, identifying which categories generate spillover value across the portfolio
- Scenario planning tools to simulate investment shifts and validate decisions at the executive level
This gave brand marketing and research teams a shared, trusted foundation to brief executives and make decisive changes, faster.
How Tchibo Boosted ROAS by 9% in Its Kids Category
One of the highlights of Tchibo’s annual calendar is the Kids Autumn Collection, a major seasonal moment and a category beloved by customers.
When the team reviewed the previous year’s campaign, Sellforte’s MMM uncovered a clear and actionable insight: one media channel had absorbed roughly 40% of the total budget while delivering the lowest ROAS performance in the mix. While the team had long suspected inefficiencies, Sellforte quantified the issue and revealed exactly where the imbalance lay.
Armed with these insights, the brand team rebalanced the media mix for the following year’s launch, reducing investment in the lowest-performing channel and reallocating spend toward stronger-performing channels. The results were clear:
Key results:
- 9% improvement in ROAS efficiency YoY
- Improved channel balance, reducing last year’s over-concentration in the lowest-ROAS channel
- Efficiency gains despite weaker online channel performance vs. last year, which would otherwise have pulled total campaign ROAS down
Measuring the Weather's Impact on Performance
Beyond media performance, Sellforte also validated an important but previously unmeasured factor: weather impact. The model confirmed the team’s hypothesis that adverse weather conditions had significantly dampened the previous year’s results, revealing that unfavorable weather reduced Kids clothing sales by 3.4% during the live campaign period.
Put simply, weather created a measurable drag on performance during the campaign period.
For Tchibo, this was more than a media efficiency win. It was trusted proof that data-driven decisions can translate into real business outcomes, giving the team clarity and confidence to refine strategy year over year.
As Marketing Director, Timo Ebert, says, "The Sellforte MMM platform has become an indispensable tool for our data-driven marketing planning. Monthly updates with analysis and media optimisation options in the dashboard have taken our MMM to a new level and provide a valuable basis for our daily work.”
“The Sellforte MMM platform has become an indispensable tool for our data-driven marketing planning, providing a valuable basis for our daily work.”
Timo Ebert
Marketing Director, Tchibo
Wider Impact of Sellforte & MMM
In addition to these specific case results, Sellforte’s solution delivered the following value points:
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Channel-aware investment: Avoiding under-investment in media that monetizes through other channels, which is critical for brands that sell predominantly via Retail Partners
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Portfolio-level visibility: Understanding total impact (direct + halo) across product categories, enabling future prioritization of categories or brands with stronger spillover effects when desired
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Executive-grade planning: Scenario outputs became a common language within the marketing organization for evaluating trade-offs and supporting decision-making
Elevating Measurement & Execution
Beyond financial impact, the collaboration elevated measurement and execution in marketing:
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Scenario planning became part of monthly marketing routines
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Expansion underway: Based on the success in Kids, Tchibo is planning to expand MMM coverage to additional product categories
With transparent MMM and powerful simulations, Tchibo established a repeatable way to optimize budgets across channels and categories, achieving a 9% improvement in ROAS efficiency for the Kids Autumn Collection while strengthening the foundation for broader, portfolio-wide marketing decisions.
Ready to Transform How You Measure Marketing?
Tchibo’s journey shows how transparent MMM and scenario-driven planning can transform complexity into clarity and deliver a measurable improvement in campaign performance.
👉 Book a demo today to see how Sellforte can help you optimize ROI, quantify halo effects, and grow incremental revenue across your portfolio.
