Brandalle-Logo

Fashion eCommerce

Validating Marketing Mix Model with Meta Conversion Lift Studies

BrandAlley-campaign-shots-1
Represent case study
Case study about how UK fashion brand Represent managed to drive +44% more incremental revenue during Black Friday 2024
+3.91x

Meta MMM ROI

+4.00x

ROAS Lift During CLS

90%

Incr. ROI is between 2.91 and 5.09 

Client Context

BrandAlley is a UK-based online fashion eCommerce specializing in flash sales of premium and luxury brands.

Established in 2008 as a joint venture between News International and
BrandAlley France, the company offers members exclusive, time-limited discounts on a wide range of products, including womenswear, menswear, children’s collections, homeware, and beauty items.

The platform launches multiple flash sales daily, each typically lasting a few days, allowing customers to access high-end products at significantly reduced prices.

Screenshot 2025-06-06 at 13.12.12

Client Requirements

As BrandAlley’s marketing team launches multiple flash sales on a daily basis, the yearly total sums up to over 1000 campaigns. At the same time, the campaigns are very short-lived, putting extra emphasis on real-time insights.

BrandAlley’s team was especially interested in:

  1. Making sure the model captures the incrementality of different media channels accurately amidst all the noise in the data
  2. Building a holistic, real-time insights that help the team to manage the myriad of campaigns
32ab3c5afecf3e00d4fc6d096fc53540a9007470

Meta Conversion Lift Study

To confirm that BrandAlley’s MMM was capturing the incremental uplifts from Meta accurately, the team decided to run a Conversion Lift Study (CLS) on Meta.

In a CLS, people who matches the ad audience is randomly split into two groups, where one is intentionally withheld from seeing the ads and another is exposed to the ads.

Comparing the outcome between the two groups reveals the true value of Meta’s incremental impact, hence allowing us to validate if MMM is accurately capturing the impact from Meta ads.

Screenshot 2025-06-06 at 13.39.44

BrandAlley's Meta Conversion Lift Study

Specifications of the test:

  • Duration: 4 weeks
  • Included Advertising Channels: All
  • Included Campaigns: All
  • Primary objective: Purchases

Comparing the sales between these two groups, the CLS found an incremental ROAS lift for Meta Ads to be 4.00x.

 

ROAS lift

Validating MMM Results with a Lift Test

A lower and upper limit is also provided in the test results, informing us that there is a 90% probability that the true ROAS is within the range of 2.91 - 5.09.

Selllforte’s MMM ROI for Meta Ads during the test period was 3.91
  • Given that 3.91 is well within the 90% confidence interval, the test then confirms that Sellforte’s MMM results are in the correct ballpark and can be used with confidence in media planning
Validation1

Tailoring MMM insights for flash sales

BrandAlley’s campaign frequency and quantity is very high due to the nature of it’s business.

Ongoing analyses and feedback on optimization efforts is a necessity for BrandAlley and Sellforte’s continuous MMM provides just that. With daily updates, the team is able to make real-time adjustments to their marketing tactics, based on the most current data.

In addition, BrandAlley was able to add custom dimensions (e.g. Brand tiers, Campaign types: Category-focused, Brand-focused…), on top of the many key default dimensions, to personalize and further solidify the insights they were getting from Sellforte.

 

flash sales
It’s been great how the Sellforte team has been able to adapt to our business model and help us to validate the insights through the Lift Test. We have now a solid foundation to optimise our marketing campaigns and make decisions about the budget
Ricky
Richard Lucas

Head of Performance Marketing @ BrandAlley